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  1. Curriculum
  2. /Trading and market making
  3. /Markets and products
  4. /Market events to know

Market events, and the lesson each one actually taught

MKT · Chapter 5·13 min read·Asked at Optiver, SIG, IMC, Jane Street

After this lesson you should be able to

  • Describe the mechanism behind each episode, not just the headline.
  • Identify the common structure: leverage, crowding and a forced unwind.
  • Say what each event changed about how desks manage risk.

Interviewers ask about market events to find out whether you understand mechanisms or only remember headlines. Almost every episode below has the same skeleton: a crowded position, leverage that forces trading in the wrong direction, and a liquidity assumption that held right up until it did not.

Definition 5.1

LTCM, 1998

Convergence trades at scale — A fund of extraordinary talent held highly leveraged convergence positions — spreads that should narrow — across many markets. When Russia defaulted, every spread widened at once, and the positions that were supposed to be diversified turned out to be the same trade in different clothing. Leverage forced selling into exactly the markets already moving against them.

Definition 5.2

The Flash Crash, 2010

Liquidity is not a constant — A large automated sell programme in index futures, sized as a share of *volume* rather than of liquidity, executed into a thinning book. Market makers withdrew, volume rose as machines traded with each other, the algorithm sped up in response, and prices in some names briefly printed at a cent. The lesson is that liquidity is an equilibrium outcome, not a property of the market you can assume.

Definition 5.3

Volmageddon, February 2018

Rules-based flow that must chase — Inverse-VIX products held short VIX futures and rebalanced daily to a constant exposure — so when volatility rose they had to *buy* VIX futures, into a market already moving against them. The flow was large relative to the contract, mechanical, and perfectly predictable to anyone who had read the prospectus. Several products lost most of their value in a single afternoon.

Definition 5.4

Negative oil, April 2020

Physical delivery is physical — The expiring WTI contract settled at minus $37\$37$37. Holders who could not take delivery had to pay someone to take the contract, because storage at Cushing was full and the futures contract obliges physical delivery. Nothing was broken: the price of a barrel you must receive and cannot store is genuinely negative, and several risk systems that assumed prices were non-negative could not represent it.

Definition 5.5

GameStop, 2021

Short squeezes and gamma — Heavy short interest met concentrated retail call buying. Dealers short those calls had to buy stock to stay hedged, and buying more as the price rose — a gamma feedback loop — while short sellers covering added to the same flow. Brokers then restricted buying because clearing-house margin requirements rose with volatility, which is the part most commentary got wrong.

EventThe crowdingWhat forced the trade
LTCMConvergence spreads, many marketsLeverage and margin calls
Flash CrashPassive liquidity provisionAn algorithm targeting volume share
VolmageddonShort volatilityDaily rebalancing to constant leverage
Negative oilLong the front contractPhysical delivery with no storage
GameStopShort the stock, short the callsMargin calls and delta hedging
Table 5.6 · The same skeleton each time. In every row the forced party had no discretion. That is what turns a price move into a cascade, and it is what to look for when someone describes a new episode to you.

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← Macro: the yield curve, the central bank and the calendarPitching a trade: thesis, instrument, sizing, risk, catalyst, exit →
On this page
  • LTCM, 1998
  • The Flash Crash, 2010
  • Volmageddon, February 2018
  • Negative oil, April 2020
  • GameStop, 2021
  • The same skeleton each time

QuantMax · 141 lessons · 1342 questions · c5c0caa

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