A spread follows on daily data. What is the half-life of a shock, in days?
Answer with a number in days. Fractions, powers and expressions like 23/6 or C(52,5) are read correctly in practice.
Show the answer and worked solution
Answer
The process is an AR(1) in disguise with mean-reversion speed per day, so a shock decays as and the half-life solves , giving days. The half-life is the number every pairs trader wants, because it sets the holding period and therefore the turnover and cost budget. A useful sanity check is that a half-life of fourteen days corresponds to in the level form, which is exactly . Solving the daily recursion exactly instead, gives days, which is also accepted; the continuous formula is the one quoted in practice.
Worked solution
- Formula
- Substitute
- Solve
- Answer
Sanity check. Call it a fortnight. It sets the holding period, and therefore the turnover and the costs.
Takeaway: Half-life is divided by the mean-reversion speed.
Answer it in practice – your answer is marked and recorded.
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Unit roots, spurious regression and the basis of pairs trading
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