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A hit rate with a prior · Part 3 of 3
A researcher models the hit rate of a strategy’s daily direction calls with a Beta(2, 2) prior, centred on a coin flip. Over 20 days the calls are right 14 times.
Back to the Beta(2, 2) prior. What is the posterior predictive probability that the next two calls are both right?
Answer with a number. Fractions, powers and expressions like 23/6 or C(52,5) are read correctly in practice.
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