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A hit rate with a prior · Part 1 of 3
A researcher models the hit rate of a strategy’s daily direction calls with a Beta(2, 2) prior, centred on a coin flip. Over 20 days the calls are right 14 times.
What is the posterior mean of the hit rate?
Answer with a number. Fractions, powers and expressions like 23/6 or C(52,5) are read correctly in practice.
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