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Who is on the other side? · Part 1 of 3
An asset is worth 99 or 101 with equal probability. A fraction α of the people who trade with you know the true value and buy only if it is 101, selling if it is 99; everyone else buys or sells with probability ½ each, whatever the value.
With α = 0.3, what is the probability the asset is worth 101 given that someone buys from you?
Answer with a number. Fractions, powers and expressions like 23/6 or C(52,5) are read correctly in practice.
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